Will Justice Clarence Thomas retire before the end of 2028?

Justice Thomas, age 77 in 2026, is the longest-serving current justice (since 1991). His retirement calculus depends heavily on who controls the White House and Senate. Under a Republican president, retirement becomes strategically attractive to ensure a conservative replacement. Thomas has shown no public indication of wanting to step down, but health and age considerations become increasingly relevant. The political timing is the dominant factor.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if Clarence Thomas voluntarily vacates his Supreme Court seat (retirement or resignation) before December 31, 2028. Death in office resolves NO.

Source: Supreme Court of the United States Official Announcements

Expected resolution: January 15, 2029