Will Justice Samuel Alito retire before the end of 2028?

Justice Alito, age 76 in 2026, is younger than Thomas and has served fewer years on the bench (since 2006). He has been more publicly vocal about his positions, suggesting continued engagement with the role. Like Thomas, his retirement calculus depends on political alignment, but he appears less likely to retire given his more recent tenure and apparent energy for the work. The probability is lower than Thomas but non-trivial given age.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if Samuel Alito voluntarily vacates his Supreme Court seat before December 31, 2028. Death in office resolves NO.

Source: Supreme Court of the United States Official Announcements

Expected resolution: January 15, 2029