Will the court's approval rating drop below 30% before 2028?

Supreme Court approval hit a historic low of 40% in 2023 following the Dobbs decision, but has partially recovered. Further controversial rulings on abortion, gun rights, or administrative law could push approval lower. However, 30% would represent uncharted territory — even at its lowest point, the Court maintained ~40% approval. The institution retains a floor of conservative support that makes sub-30% challenging absent an extraordinary crisis of legitimacy.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if any Gallup Supreme Court approval survey shows approval at or below 30% before January 1, 2028.

Source: Gallup Supreme Court Approval Polls

Expected resolution: January 15, 2028