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The Supreme Court's Trump v. United States (2024) ruling on presidential immunity opened new legal territory. If military actions against Iran escalate, challenges to executive war powers authority could reach the Court through congressional standing or individual plaintiff claims. However, the Court has historically avoided war powers questions under the political question doctrine. The probability depends heavily on the trajectory of the Iran conflict and whether Congress takes action to constrain executive authority.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if the Supreme Court grants certiorari and hears oral arguments in a case directly related to presidential immunity or war powers authority in the Iran conflict before January 1, 2029.
Source: Supreme Court of the United States Orders / Docket
Expected resolution: January 15, 2029
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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