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Texas has been trending more competitive in recent cycles, with Ted Cruz winning by just 2.6 points in 2018 and Republicans winning by smaller margins in subsequent races. Continued Democratic organizing and demographic shifts in the Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio metros keep the race within striking distance, though Republican structural advantages in the state remain significant.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if the final certified vote margin in the 2026 Texas US Senate general election is 5.0 percentage points or less between the first and second place candidates.
Source: Texas Secretary of State certified election results
Expected resolution: December 15, 2026
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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