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While Trump endorsements remain powerful in Republican primaries, they are not infallible. The 2022 cycle showed that candidate quality and local dynamics can override the Trump endorsement effect. As Trump becomes more distant from active politics in his post-presidential phase, the potency of his endorsement may wane in some races, especially in states with strong local Republican establishments.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if at least one candidate who received an official endorsement from Donald Trump for a US Senate race loses a Republican primary election in 2026. The endorsement must be official (posted on Truth Social or campaign website).
Source: Official Trump endorsement records and AP-called primary results
Expected resolution: October 1, 2026
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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