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US life expectancy dropped sharply to 76.1 years in 2021 and began recovering, reaching approximately 77.5 years in 2023. The recovery trajectory suggests reaching 78.8 by 2026 or 2027 is plausible but not certain. Drug overdose deaths, rising chronic disease rates, and maternal mortality remain headwinds. COVID-19 excess mortality has largely normalized, but the "deaths of despair" epidemic continues. The CDC data publication lag (typically 12-18 months) also affects timing.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if the CDC/NCHS reports US life expectancy at birth of 78.8 years or higher for any year with data published before January 1, 2028.
Source: CDC National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)
Expected resolution: January 15, 2028
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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