Will China invade Taiwan before 2028?

The Iran conflict has paradoxically both increased and decreased Taiwan invasion risk. On one hand, US military assets are now heavily committed to the Middle East, creating a potential window. On the other hand, China is observing the severe economic consequences of regional conflict (oil shock, market turmoil, supply chain disruption) and recognizing that a Taiwan scenario would be far more devastating to China's export-dependent economy. Xi Jinping is more likely to use this period for military buildup and diplomatic positioning than kinetic action.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if China initiates an amphibious invasion, sustained aerial bombardment, or naval blockade (blocking 80%+ of commercial shipping for 7+ days) of Taiwan before January 1, 2028.

Source: US Department of Defense / Associated Press / Reuters

Expected resolution: January 1, 2028