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The Islamic Republic has never held elections that meet international standards of "free and fair" — the Guardian Council vets all candidates, opposition parties are banned, and media is state-controlled. Even in a post-Khamenei succession scenario, the IRGC and clerical establishment have zero incentive to allow genuinely competitive elections that could threaten their power. The only path to YES involves complete regime collapse and democratic transition, which the 22% collapse probability suggests is unlikely.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if Iran holds a national election (presidential or parliamentary) before January 1, 2028, that is assessed as "free and fair" by at least two credible international election monitoring organizations.
Source: EU Election Observation Mission / Freedom House / Associated Press
Expected resolution: January 1, 2028
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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