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Active military conflict makes nuclear negotiations effectively impossible. The Trump administration launched Operation Epic Fury partly to destroy nuclear infrastructure by force rather than negotiate. With Khamenei dead and no clear negotiating authority in Tehran, there is no counterpart for diplomacy. The only scenario for a deal requires: conflict resolution, new Iranian leadership, and a dramatic US policy reversal — all within 10 months. The JCPOA took over 2 years to negotiate under far more favorable conditions.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if the US and Iran sign or jointly announce a formal agreement governing Iran's nuclear program before January 1, 2027. Interim understandings or verbal commitments do not qualify.
Source: US State Department / IAEA / Iranian Foreign Ministry
Expected resolution: January 1, 2027
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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