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The California HSR project is one of America's most troubled mega-projects. Originally estimated at $33B, costs have ballooned past $128B, and the initial operating segment in the Central Valley is not expected to be complete until 2030 at the earliest. The project has faced continuous delays, legal challenges, and funding gaps. Even optimistic timelines do not project passenger service before 2030. Revenue service by 2029 would require a pace of construction that has no precedent in this project's history.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if revenue passenger service begins on any segment of the California high-speed rail system before January 1, 2029. Test runs or construction milestones do not count.
Source: California High-Speed Rail Authority Official Announcements
Expected resolution: January 15, 2029
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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