Will a major US bridge or dam fail before 2028?

The US has 617,000+ bridges, with roughly 42,000 rated structurally deficient, and over 91,000 dams with an average age exceeding 60 years. The 2024 Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse in Baltimore demonstrated ongoing vulnerability. While federal infrastructure investment is increasing, the deterioration backlog is massive. The base rate of significant infrastructure failures suggests a non-trivial probability, though catastrophic events remain relatively rare in any given two-year window.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if a bridge collapse or dam failure in the US causes loss of life, destroys critical infrastructure, or triggers evacuation of >10,000 people before January 1, 2028. Controlled demolitions and planned decommissions do not count.

Source: FEMA / US Army Corps of Engineers / National Transportation Safety Board

Expected resolution: January 15, 2028