Will federal infrastructure spending exceed $500 billion in a single year before 2029?

The IIJA and IRA together authorized hundreds of billions in infrastructure spending, but actual annual outlays have ramped slowly. Total federal infrastructure spending (broadly defined) was estimated at approximately $350-400B annually. Reaching $500B would require significant acceleration of IIJA/IRA project outlays plus baseline spending. While the trajectory is upward, bureaucratic deployment bottlenecks and potential political shifts could slow spending. The definition of "infrastructure spending" also affects the outcome significantly.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if total federal infrastructure obligations or outlays (as defined by the CBO or OMB, including IIJA and IRA infrastructure components) exceed $500 billion in any fiscal year ending before October 1, 2029.

Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO) / Office of Management and Budget (OMB)

Expected resolution: December 31, 2029