Will the Federal Reserve cut rates to below 2% before 2028?

With inflation re-accelerating due to the Iran conflict and energy price shocks, the Fed is unlikely to cut rates aggressively enough to reach sub-2% in the near term. The only scenario that gets rates below 2% is a severe recession requiring emergency monetary easing, which would require a significant economic shock beyond the current geopolitical situation. The market is pricing appropriately low probability.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if the FOMC sets the federal funds rate target range with an upper bound below 2.00% at any meeting before January 1, 2028. Emergency inter-meeting rate decisions also count.

Source: Federal Reserve FOMC meeting statements and press releases

Expected resolution: January 15, 2028