Will a major US bank fail before 2028?

The 2023 banking crisis (SVB, Signature, First Republic) demonstrated that large bank failures remain possible in the current environment. However, regulatory responses since then have strengthened liquidity requirements and the Fed discount window. Commercial real estate exposure remains a risk, particularly for regional banks, and sustained high interest rates stress unrealized losses on bond portfolios. A major bank failure is a tail risk, not a central scenario.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if a US bank with $100+ billion in total assets (as reported in its most recent quarterly call report) is placed into FDIC receivership, files for Chapter 11 or Chapter 7 bankruptcy, or receives emergency government capital injection before January 1, 2028. Merger under duress counts if preceded by imminent failure.

Source: FDIC Failed Bank List and Federal Reserve emergency actions

Expected resolution: February 1, 2028