Will the national debt exceed $45 trillion before 2029?

The national debt trajectory strongly favors YES. Current debt exceeds $36 trillion and is growing by approximately $2-3 trillion annually through deficits. Military spending increases from the Iran conflict, tax revenue shortfalls, and entitlement spending growth make it very likely the debt crosses $45 trillion before 2029. Only a dramatic fiscal consolidation or economic boom generating surplus revenues could prevent this.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if the US Treasury Department reports total public debt outstanding exceeding $45.0 trillion at any point before January 1, 2029. Based on the Daily Treasury Statement or Monthly Treasury Statement.

Source: US Treasury Department Daily Treasury Statement

Expected resolution: February 1, 2029