Will unemployment exceed 5% before the 2028 election?

The US labor market has remained resilient through multiple shocks, and unemployment has stayed below 4.5% for an extended period. Reaching 5% would require a meaningful recession or significant structural disruption. While the Iran conflict and potential energy-driven economic slowdown create recession risk, the long timeframe and labor market strength make this a moderate-probability event.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if the BLS-reported U-3 unemployment rate exceeds 5.0% in any monthly Employment Situation report released before November 1, 2028. Preliminary figures count; revisions do not retroactively change resolution.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report

Expected resolution: November 15, 2028