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The US dollar losing reserve currency status within 4 years is virtually impossible given current fundamentals. At approximately 58% of global reserves, a drop to below 40% would require an unprecedented shift in global financial architecture. No alternative currency has the liquidity, depth, or institutional infrastructure to absorb trillions in reserve reallocation. Even aggressive BRICS dedollarization efforts operate on a multi-decade timeline.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if the IMF COFER (Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves) data shows USD share below 40.0% in any quarterly report published before January 1, 2030. Current USD share is approximately 58%.
Source: IMF Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER)
Expected resolution: April 1, 2030
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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