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GDP growth above 3% is achievable but not the consensus expectation for 2026 given current headwinds. The Iran conflict is a drag on growth through higher energy costs, and the Fed is unlikely to provide significant monetary stimulus. However, a strong consumer, AI-driven productivity gains, or a resolution of the Iran conflict could produce a strong quarter. The annual average may be lower, but one strong quarter is certainly possible.
Last updated: Mar 2, 2026
Resolves YES if the BEA advance, preliminary, or final estimate of real GDP annualized quarterly growth exceeds 3.0% for any quarter in 2026 (Q1, Q2, Q3, or Q4). The first official estimate for each quarter counts.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP release
Expected resolution: April 1, 2027
Outcome tokens pay $1.00 if the outcome resolves YES.
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