Will the US housing market decline more than 20% before 2028?

A 20% national housing decline would be a crash comparable to 2008, which is unlikely given current fundamentals. Housing supply remains historically constrained, most homeowners hold low-rate fixed mortgages, and lending standards are far stricter than pre-2008. A severe recession could produce a 10-15% correction in overheated markets, but a 20% national decline requires an extreme economic scenario.

Last updated: Mar 2, 2026

Resolves YES if the S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index (seasonally adjusted) drops more than 20% from its peak value at any point before January 1, 2028. Based on officially published index values.

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Expected resolution: March 1, 2028